This change of scenery might be best for Ian Kennedy

In agreeing to sign right-handed pitcher Ian Kennedy to a five-year, $70 million free agent contract, the Kansas City Royals have acquired one of the major leagues’ most durable starters and one who might benefit from pitching half his games at Kauffman Stadium.

Since the beginning of the 2010 season, when Kennedy broke into a major league starting rotation, he ranks 14th in the majors in innings pitched. That workload indicates some level of performance, although his Wins Above Replacement during the past six seasons (9.6) ranks 27th among 35 pitchers with at least 1,000 innings. He hasn’t posted a WAR of more than 2.3 in a season since his 21-4, 1.09 WHIP, 3.6 strikeout-to-walk showing of 2011.

Last season, Kennedy struck out 24.4 percent of the batters he faced, ranking 18th out of 78 qualifying pitchers. His 9.30 strikeouts per nine innings marked a career high. But Kennedy ranked last of the 78 qualifiers in opponent OPS (.816), home run percentage (4.3 percent) and well-hit average (.180).

Kennedy allowed fly balls on 34.0 percent of the balls put in play against him last season, compared with the major league average of 30.0 percent. His percentage of balls in play that were line drives last season (23.8 percent) ranked next-to-last in the majors.

Royals’ defense appears a good fit

So it appears a certainty that when batters don’t strike out (or walk) against Kennedy, his defense is under pressure. With the Royals, that should be much less of a problem than it might have been in the past.
Ian Kennedy Since 20112011*2012-15ERA 2.88 4.19
WHIP 1.09 1.32
Opp. slugging pct. .361 .443

The Padres were 26th in Defensive Runs Saved in 2015, including 25th in DRS in the outfield. The Royals were second in DRS last year (third in the outfield). The difference in runs saved in the outfield between the Royals and the Padres last year was 50 runs.

The change to Kauffman Stadium should benefit Kennedy. The home run percentage allowed by Royals pitchers at home last season was sixth-lowest in the majors; the Padres had the sixth-highest.